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The Future of Countering Terrorism - Beyond the Campaign

I. Origins of the Project

PINS' publication of Sharpening the Sword marked the second major research project we've completed as an organization where virtual collaboration was the medium utilized. Our next project on "The Future of Countering Terrorism" is as timely as it is critical to the continuing national security debate.

II. Participants

To date we have identified twenty potential authors for the project -- some of whom have volunteered to take part in the project, others have been recruited. In all cases the final publishing of each article will be contingent upon the approval of the project editors. We intend to shape the volume, in terms of what is written, by establishing four areas for research --- authors will be asked to write on subjects germane to one of those four areas. The deadline to identify participants is July 1, 2002.

III. Framework

There will be four major sections within the project and in each section there will be between five and seven chapters included. The four major sections will represent four major national security issues and/or policy questions related to countering terrorism that we either currently face or will face up to 20 years in the future.

IV. Substance

This will not be a review of our progress in the war on terrorism. In fact the intention of the volume is to take a comprehensive look ahead. As the Council for EMERGING National Security Affairs we will be true to our name in this effort. We begin this effort with the belief that successfully countering terrorism is indeed a long-term proposition and that an effective approach must include the tenets of a strong strategy. The initial concept for the four sections:

Section A: The Evolving Problem and Stagnating Solutions

• Will the challenges we face in the future change?
• This section will take a look at terrorist threats in the future in order to define the parameters for feasible approaches to countering them.
• The goal of this Section is to make clear the enormity of the challenge and to determine what it is -- outside the "Afghanistan model" -- we're up against and, more importantly, what challenges we may face in the future, because threats evolve as quickly as responses.

Section B: Developing Sound Policy for the Long Term

• What type of policies must be developed to move beyond temporary fixes and reactive rhetoric? How can we reduce terrorism to an insignificant threat over the next 20 years? What steps must be taken now?
• The objective of this section is make clear to agencies in government, the citizens of this country, and the leaders of other countries how precisely we plan to move forward, our vision for the future, how we intend to deal with the problem in plain terms.

Section C: The Role of Aid, Development, and Force

• What tools to counter-terrorism are at our disposal as a nation? Under what circumstances and how should we use them? Does an effective long-term policy mean a long term commitment? If so, how should/could that manifest itself best?
• Since the roots of terrorism spring not only from the desperation of poverty and oppression but also from religious fanaticism among the wealthy, the approaches to countering terrorism must be as broad ranging as the problem.
• The objective of this section is to weigh the benefit of tangible policy options, determine the circumstances when military action, economic pressure, and diplomatic engagement are appropriate and when non-standard approaches & long-term commitment (substantial aid investment) might work better (or in tandem).

Section D: Re-Defining Coaltions, Alliances, & Cooperation

• The war on terrorism has few comparable historical analogies, can this "war" be waged in the same manner and following similar principles of war? How should we define friends, foes, and neutral parties? What about those who are neither with us nor with the terrorists? Is a new alliance needed? How can we leverage the old ones? (NATO) are the formal terms of art less applicable when countering terrorism? How can cooperation among threatened nations manifest itself?
• The traditional modes of thought in terms of diplomatic and military cooperation are not as readily translated to an amorphous foe as when facing a clear enemy, as such we must look to approaches that have worked well in the preceding decades (marriages of convenience, etc.) and formalize them -- those efforts that were ad hoc but known to be effective must become standard procedure.
• The objective of this section will be to demonstrate that long term solutions will not look at all like the approaches to past national security challenges, in some cases, and in others a combination of tried and true methods may be an effective weapon for us in a policy sense.

V. Initial Timeline

• Authors signed on (before July 5th)
• Outlines submitted (before August 1st)
• First Draft to editors (before September 8th)
• Second Draft to editors (before October 5th)
• Ready for Proof & Typeset (before November 14th)
• To Print (before December 1st) * Released (January 1st, 2003)

 

Editors: James Anderson, Bryan Cummings, Tony Goldwyn, Mike Fenzel

Potential Authors:

Roger Carstens Keith Fitzgerald Adam Grissom Mark Jacobson Mike Fenzel Stephen Myrow

Stephen Ostrowski James Prusky William Robison Isaiah Wilson Ehsaneh Sadr Tom Carter